December 11 2023: The official predictions, chosen by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis, for the next Tony, Grammy, Oscar, and Emmy ceremonies. The prediction pages do not represent the author's personal choices for any particular competitor; rather, they represent the current race standings. As indicated by previous official and informal surveys, contests are dynamic and can alter in response to events and buzz.
Among the 167 nonfiction films contending for Academy Award consideration are Abramorama's "32 Sounds," Netflix's "American Symphony," and Magnolia's "Little Richard: I Am Everything." Documentary films that have been officially selected in their nation and have either won an award at a qualifying film festival or have been submitted as an international feature. Documentary films are eligible to compete for Academy Awards in other categories, such as best picture. Members of the Documentary Branch choose the nominations and shortlist.
Not all films have received their mandatory qualifying releases, which they need to meet the other qualifying requirements for the category.
Voting on the shortlist will start later this week, and it will take a monumental effort to reduce this list to only 15 items. Expect major flops like the previous year's "Good Night Oppy." Additionally, I'd like to see how the four-hour documentaries compare to the works of the branch members, including Steve McQueen's "Occupied City" and Frederick Wiseman's "Menus-Plaisirs – Les Troisgros."
For general categories, the deadline for submissions is November 15, 2023. The preliminary shortlist for eight categories will be released between December 14 and 18, and the results will be made public on December 21. The official candidates will be announced on January 23, and the Oscar nomination period will take place from January 11–16, 2024.
Thursday, December 21st, will see the announcement of the 15-film shortlist.
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